Monthly Outlook

 Last updated

Summary

A cool end to March, a bit milder in April.

A cool spell of weather this weekend with a notable wind-chill and perhaps a few showers. Remaining cool next week with the chance of rain for some. April should offer up some drier weather and it should become milder too.

A cool week ahead with many areas largely dry.

High pressure will remain centred to the north-west of the United Kingdom throughout this weekend. It will bring brisk north to north-easterly winds to many areas of the country on Saturday and on Sunday. These winds combined with chilly polar air mean that it will feel very cold with a significant wind chill for most areas.

Whilst most areas will be largely dry, showers are likely to affect some eastern areas. These showers may be wintry in nature, but it is worth noting that we are not expecting widespread or persistent snow and settling snow may well be fairly transitory.

Next week will be very similar to the weekend at first, but we expect winds to ease off towards the middle of the week. By that time, high pressure will have started to decline southwards. Whilst this makes little difference to many areas of the UK, it will allow Atlantic weather systems to bring some showers and rain to some northern parts of the UK.

This kind of pattern is likely to continue through the second half of the week. The north of the UK could see showers or rain and will tend to be relatively cool. The south, which will be nearer to the ridge of high pressure, should stay drier. It will be relatively cool here too.

Worth mentioning that some rain could move into the west late next week as high pressure starts to drift eastwards, but confidence in this part of the forecast is fairly low.

Chance of rain in the north, drier in the south.

Having started to drift eastwards at the start of April, high pressure is likely to start to drift westwards again as we move towards the middle of the month.

For the UK, this means that there will be the chance of some unsettled weather, although it doesn't look like the start of another prolonged spell of wet and windy weather.

The north and west of the country are most likely to see showers and rain, with some spells of windy weather also likely. Scotland and Northern Ireland will probably end up wettest. Meanwhile, the further south and east you are across the country, the more likely you are to have drier and calmer weather. Temperatures are likely to be near or a tad above average in south-eastern parts of the country, and near or perhaps a little below normal in the north and west

There is a fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast for this period of April. It all centres on the relative position and extent of the ridge of high pressure across Europe. If it is more of an extensive feature then expected, and this is most likely in the first half of the week, then more of the country to be relatively dry and calm. If the ridge of high pressure is less of a feature, as is possible at the end of the week, then expect wetter and windier but potentially milder weather.

Probably drier, less windy than normal.

The middle and end of April will see high pressure centred broadly over the west and south-west. This should mean that Atlantic weather systems are stopped from affecting much of the country as they usually would.

The result is that we should see a spell of relatively dry weather for most of the country. This doesn't mean completely dry of course - weather systems could creep around the northern side of this ridge and bring some rain, this most likely to affect Scotland and perhaps parts of Northern Ireland and northern England. On the whole, it should be drier than normal for the time of year. The north of the UK is more likely to see windy weather than the south, but overall it doesn't look like a very windy couple of weeks in most areas.

Finally, on to the temperature forecast. Winds should come broadly from the west or southwest. This could result in some warm air being pushed across parts of the country at times. As a result, we think it is most likely that temperatures will be near or a little above normal for the time of year. Whilst that doesn't rule out some cooler spells of weather, it should make any late overnight frosts less likely.

As always with these longer range forecast, there is a bit of uncertainty. As with earlier in the month, the uncertainty centres around how extensive high pressure is across western Europe. There is a chance that it might be less influential and Atlantic weather systems bring more unsettled, wetter and windier weather to the UK - something perhaps a bit more like typical of mid-to-late April weather perhaps?

Further ahead

Will the forecast for April look any more certain, and will we be able to tease out any more details?